Annual debate: Prediction versus precedence in a changing climate sponsored by
Background
Our climate presents a major challenge globally and for the UK. Global temperatures are rising as a result of human activity. We are experiencing higher temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, rising sea levels, and more frequent and intense extreme weather events ranging from droughts, floods and freezing winters.
Climate change could have significant impacts on our infrastructure – the need to future-proof existing and new assets is real. Long operational lifetimes mean assets need to be agile to operate in the existing climate at the time of their construction as well as climate variations over the decades of their use.
Engineering design, codification and methods are based upon established assumptions and ingrained practice – precedence. However, climate change, resultant extremes, and hazards outside of design parameters means we need to be more agile and move towards prediction. How will precedence versus prediction help us to meet the challenges of climate change and limit its impact on new and existing infrastructure?
Outcome
Leading experts tackled fundamental issues surrounding infrastructure resilience in a changing climate, and discussed whether precedence is a viable 'business as usual' operating landscape in response to unpredictable climate events at our 8th annual debate.
The ‘answer’ evidently lives in some middle ground – utilising predictive methods to understand the scope and scale of the issue and incorporating these into new codification, standards and guidance. These need to be nimble – with the uncertainties of change built in and explicit in terms of the challenges. Whole life approaches are needed as exposure may change with time. There is a need to be creative and complement traditional civil methods with new technology, nature-based solutions and taking a broader systems view of function.
There is also the need to accept in many instances that design parameters will be exceeded by extremes and to design systems which can be safely exceeded and minimise risk to life and property. A social acceptance is needed here. Our built environment needs to consider all facets of sustainability economic, social and environment.
Adaptative approaches are needed as data becomes available – accelerating, delaying or changing plans in light of new information.