Predicting the future is difficult but, for those responsible for the management of assets, it is necessary. Deterioration modelling essentially provides a systematic means of predicting the future, improving asset knowledge in support of the wider process of effective asset management. In particular, results from deterioration models can make an important contribution to the understanding of asset performance and risk and how these might change over time, which is fundamental to the core asset management principles of informed planning and decision making.
There is evidence of demand for the knowledge that can be provided by deterioration modelling, and there are clearly significant opportunities to advance the current situation. The skills and technologies that are required to make deterioration modelling a more viable and rewarding prospect than has previously been the case – including environmental and structural sensors, non-contact scanning equipment, data transmission, storage and processing capabilities and advanced modelling and machine learning techniques - are rapidly developing and becoming more familiar and widely available to asset owners and their suppliers. Against a backdrop of ongoing constraints on resources for maintaining and renewing existing civil infrastructure and of current UK and international initiatives to make better use of data for asset management, to standardise data formats and encourage and facilitate the sharing of data and to develop associated data acquisition and analysis technologies, this would appear to be a very opportune time to advance the field of deterioration modelling to support the achievement of these aims.
The aims of this study are to:
• provide a high-level review of the basic principles, and purposes of deterioration modelling, and its potential value for asset-owning organisations
• assess the maturity of asset deterioration modelling across three asset types (structures, geotechnical, and drainage assets)and across sectors
• provide a basic understanding of some of the requirements for deterioration modelling, how it is currently carried out, and approaches available
• highlight current barriers to making better use of deterioration modelling techniques, and opportunities for future improvement and research.
High-level state of the industry review and report intended to provide a general overview of deterioration modelling that is useful and informative to those with limited practical experience and knowledge in the discipline, identifying some of the technical requirements and challenges and putting its uses and benefits in an asset management context.
This publication will be be available to download free the first week of May 2019 through the Bookshop's free publications
section , and supported by a webinar on 16 May 2019. For details on the webinar click here